Oakville, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

161
FXUS61 KALY 300745
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
345 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure shifting east off the New England coast will
provide continued dry weather through today, along with very
warm temperatures. It will be slightly cooler on Tuesday, but
with increasing humidity along with some showers and
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front. More seasonable weather
returns for mid to late week with an additional system bringing
the potential for some showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Key Message:

- Summertime heat returns today with high temperatures in the
  80s to lower 90s.

Discussion:

Tranquil and relatively cool conditions in place early this
morning with some patchy fog in typically favored spots. High
pressure over the region this morning will shift east off the
coast, with a developing SW flow resulting in warming aloft. 850
mb temperature anomalies will increase to +1 to +2 STDEV.
Forecast soundings show mixing up to 850 mb this afternoon,
which should translate to high temperatures in the upper 80s to
lower 90s in most valley areas. Moisture still looks slow to
return, with dewpoints rising into the lower to upper 60s late
in the day. So maximum feels-like temperatures of 90-95F are
expected in lower elevations. These do not reach Heat Advisory
criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday associated with
  a cold front passage. A few severe storms may occur during
  the afternoon to early evening Tuesday.

Discussion:

Moisture returns in earnest tonight, with dewpoints rising into
the mid/upper 60s and PWAT anomalies increasing to +2 to +3
STDEV by early Tue morning. As a warm front lifts northward
across the region, scattered to numerous showers and a few
T-storms will develop. Guidance differs in coverage/timing, with
the HRRR showing the greatest coverage and after midnight
arrival. Other CAMs (NAMNest/FV-3/WRF-ARW) are less aggressive
with coverage and later. Some limited elevated instability is
forecast (< 500 J/Kg MUCAPE), so will mention thunder in some
spots, but severe storms are not anticipated.

On Tue morning, the system`s cold front and associated upper
level trough axis looks to be approaching western NY. This
system will track eastward across our area Tue afternoon into
Tue evening. Timing does look slightly slower than prior
forecasts. Some breaks of sunshine should allow temperatures to
reach the lower/mid 80s in most valley locations. Humidity
levels will become oppressive with dewpoints rising into the
lower 70s. This will result in SBCAPE around 1000-2000
J/Kg(greatest from ALB south/east) along with 30-40 kt of 0-6 km
shear. With slower timing there is a severe threat across much
of the area, with areas north/west of Albany early to mid
afternoon and south/east late afternoon to early evening. Main
threat looks to be damaging wind gusts although isolated large
hail is possible in sustained updrafts. Mitigating factor is
weak mid level lapse rates. Much of the area continues to be in
a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) from the Storm Prediction Center.
Will monitor trends for possible upgrade if confidence increases
in favorable conditions overlapping (forcing/instability/shear).
There will also be a threat for locally heavy rainfall and
isolated flash flooding with PWAT anomalies remaining quite high
at +2 to +3 STDEV.

Showers/T-storms could linger into Tue evening south/east of
Albany as the cold front moves through. Drying will occur Tue
night in wake of the cold front. It will be mild, with gradually
lowering humidity. Lows look to range from the upper 50s in the
Adirondacks to mid 60s in the Hudson Valley.

Surface ridging builds in Wed with zonal flow aloft. It will be
noticeably less humid with near normal temperatures and a NW
breeze. Much of Wed night looks dry, although chances for
showers will start to increase across the W. Adirondacks late
as the leading edge of an upper level trough approaches from SE
Canada and the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The extended forecast period opens with a strong mid and upper
level trough moving across southeast Canada, the Great Lakes
Region and the Northeast. A cold front and a short-wave in the
northwest flow aloft will likely focus some scattered showers
and thunderstorms. Some of the thunderstorms may be on the
stronger side depending on the amount of instability in place
and the timing of the cold front, which is variable on the
medium range guidance and ensembles. Mid level heights will be
falling and the deep layer shear increasing ahead of the short-
wave. Highs will be near normal based on the NBM with upper 70s
to mid 80s in the valleys and upper 60s to upper 70s over the
hills and mtns. The showers/t-storms will decrease Thu night
with strong cold advection in the wake of the front with breezy
conditions. Lows fall back into the 50s with some 40s over the
Adirondacks Park.

Independence Day into Saturday...A cooler and drier air mass
builds in for the holiday. Temps will run near to slightly below
normal with a few sprinkles or isolated showers close to
southern VT in the cyclonic flow aloft. High pressure builds in
from the Great Lakes Region late in the day into Fri night.
Humidity levels will be comfortable for the holiday with partly
to mostly sunny skies. Highs in the 70s to near 80F in the mid
Hudson Valley with some 60s over the higher terrain. Lows will
be in the 50s with some upper 40s over the mtns. Saturday temps
moderate to near normal values with the return flow of high
pressure moving to the south and east off the coast. Some mid
and high clouds increase from the south and west ahead of a warm
front late in the day.

The close of the holiday weekend will be a bit more unsettled
with isolated to scattered showers ahead of a warm front Sat
night, but the timing of a cold front/pre-frontal sfc trough is
uncertain for the afternoon period. The NBM supports a chance of
afternoon showers and isolated/widely scattered thunderstorms
in the more humid air mass. Some of the guidance has low and mid
level ridging building in from the south and west for a drier
day. Temps rise back above normal in the warm sector with some
90F readings possible from the Tri Cities southward down the mid
Hudson Valley.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Thru 06Z Tue...High pressure has moved over eastern NY and
western New England with clear skies and calm winds. Some
radiational mist/fog will likely form at the favored climo sites
such as KGFL/KPSF. KGFL has already seen some IFR/LIFR mist. We
will include IFR/LIFR mist/fog prior to 12Z/Mon. For KPSF we
used a TEMPO group for IFR/LIFR mist/fog between 08Z-12Z.
KALB/KPOU we were less confident and kept some MVFR/high VFR
shallow fog or mist forecasted. Expect widespread VFR
conditions to return after 12Z/Mon, except for KGFL where some
MVFR stratus 1.5-3.0 kft AGL will linger until the late morning.

Some high clouds will increase in the mid to late pm. Mid and
high clouds will prevail into the evening period, where a warm
front may bring some light showers or an isolated thunderstorm.
We included some VCSH groups after 02Z-03Z/Tue. PROB30 groups
may be needed later. The winds will be calm prior to 12Z/Mon,
and then will increase from the south/southeast at less than 10
KT in the late morning into the afternoon before becoming light
at 5 KT or less tonight.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Independence Day: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JPV/Rathbun
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...Wasula
AVIATION...Wasula