Oakville, Connecticut 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

007
FXUS61 KALY 302358
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
758 PM EDT Sun Mar 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifting northward will bring some showers
overnight. Milder weather is expected on Monday ahead of a strong
cold front which will bring additional showers and possible
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon. Cooler and drier weather
return Tuesday into early Wednesday as high pressure builds across
the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE as of 711 pm EDT...Low-level stratus continues to be
over eastern NY and western New England early tonight. It
remains cool and damp, as a weak short-wave in the southwest
flow continues to allow some scattered light rain showers and
drizzle to impact locations mainly left of I-87. The warm front
has become stationary over western NY and central PA. A few
showers will increase east of I-87 and move towards western New
England prior to midnight with the weak warm advection. We also
made it cloudy everywhere with temps in the mid 30s to mid 40s
across most of the forecast and they should steady or fall off
very little tonight. We did add some patchy fog especially in
southwest New England and south and east of the Capital Region.

Previous near term...
As of 355 PM EDT, spotty light rain showers are crossing the
areas from the Capital Region north and west. Mainly dry but
clouds conditions remain to the south and east. Temps have only
reached the 40s for most areas, except 35-40 across the southern
Adirondacks and higher elevations of southern VT/western MA.

Persistent warm advective regime along with passing upper level
shortwave energy will keep some showers around overnight, with
best chances mainly from Albany north and west. Some patchy fog
will also be possible, especially across higher terrain areas
north of I-90 and also across higher elevations of western New
England.

Temperatures may fall slightly this evening back into the mid
30s to lower 40s, then should slowly rise after midnight into
the 40s. Some 50s will be possible by daybreak across higher
elevations of the eastern Catskills.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

- Thunderstorms remain possible Monday where some could become
  strong to locally severe, especially areas south and west of
  Albany.

Discussion:

Cold front will be approaching from the west Monday, tracking NW
to SE across the region during the afternoon/early evening
hours. Overall instability looks weak, with MUCAPES generally
<500 J/kg, despite 0-6 km shear of 40-50+ KT. It appears that
some line of gusty showers with perhaps a few embedded
thunderstorms may develop across the Mohawk Valley into the
upper Hudson Valley early Monday afternoon, then track south and
east during the mid to late afternoon hours. Greatest
instability looks to be across the SE Catskills and mid Hudson
Valley region, and this might be where isolated stronger
thunderstorms could develop, with isolated damaging wind gusts
the main threat. SPC has placed most of the region within a
Marginal to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, although
instability and coverage remain uncertain given overall lack of
instability.

Temperatures should briefly rise into the mid 60s to lower 70s
within some valley areas early Monday afternoon, with 50s to
lower 60s elsewhere. Gusty south to southwest winds may reach
25-35 mph ahead of the cold front.

As the cold front approaches the mid Hudson Valley and NW CT,
the boundary may slow down and a wave of low pressure may
develop along the boundary in response to the right entrance
region of an upper level jet max translating across the region.
This may allow an area of stratiform rain to linger in these
areas through Monday evening, with moderate to locally heavy
rain possible. Precipitation could even end as some wet snow
across the higher elevations of the southern Taconics,
Berkshires and southern Greens depending on where any wave
develops.

It will turn breezy and cooler in the wake of the front, with
low temps by daybreak Tuesday falling into the 30s except for
20s across higher terrain areas of the southwest Adirondacks and
eastern Catskills. Breezy and cool conditions for Tuesday with
clearing skies, with clear and chilly conditions Tuesday night.
Highs Tuesday mainly in the 40s to around 50 with except for 30s
across higher elevations. Lows Tuesday night in the teens
northern areas and 20s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages:

- Increasing chances for precipitation Wednesday afternoon into
  Thursday, possibly starting as snow/wintry mix across northern
  areas.

- Unsettled conditions may return Friday into a portion of next
  weekend, with chances for showers greatest (30-40%) for areas
  near and south of I-90.

Discussion:

Low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes region brings another
area of precipitation into the region late Wednesday into
Thursday. Enough cold/dry air may allow for precipitation to
begin as snow or a wintry mix across the southern Adirondacks,
upper Hudson Valley, southern VT and perhaps higher elevations
of the eastern Catskills. 13Z/30 NBM 24-hour probs for >1 inch
of snow ending 8 AM Thursday are generally 10-20% in these
areas, though are higher (40-60%+) for amounts greater than
0.1". 13Z/30 NBM 24-hour probs for >0.01 inch of freezing
rain/ice accretion ending 8 AM Thursday is 50-70% across the
higher elevations in these areas.

After a brief reprieve Friday, additional precipitation is
possible Saturday into Sunday as a possible wave of low pressure
develops along a trailing front left behind from the Thursday
system and tracks toward or south of the region. Best chances
for precipitation are currently along and south of I-90
(30-40%), with mainly rain favored as P-type.

Seasonable temps Wednesday reaching the 40s/lower 50s in valley
and 30s/lower 40s across higher terrain, possibly warming into
the 60s to around 70 Thursday depending on the passage of a warm
front. Temps cool into the 50s/60s Friday, with mainly 40s and
50s next weekend. Overnight lows mainly in the 30s, except for
some 20s across the southern Adirondacks. Thursday night might
be relatively mild as a warm front tracks through the region,
with lows possibly in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 00z Monday...Widespread low MVFR/IFR conditions continue
for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU with low cigs north/northeast of a warm
front over w-central NY and PA. Scattered showers are moving
across the terminals with an upper level disturbance and weak
forcing head ahead of the boundary tonight. Expect widespread
IFR cigs to form even for KGFL/KALB in the deeper moisture with
possible vsbys lowering to 1-4SM. Some additional
showers/drizzle is likely overnight within the IFR or very low
MVFR range. Some improvement gradually occurs from south to
north to MVFR conditions in the very late morning/early
afternoon as the boundary moves through. We increased KALB/KPOU
first to MVFR levels by 16Z/Mon and then KPSF/KGFL between
16Z-18Z/Mon. A prefrontal trough and cold front will be
approaching with additional showers and thunderstorms especially
after 20Z/MON and we used PROB30 groups to bring those in.

The low-level jet increases to 35-50 KT at 2 kft AGL tonight
with the sfc winds light to calm, except at KALB where a
southeast wind may persist at 5-10 KT. We included LLWS in all
the TAF sites tonight and into much of Monday morning until the
low-level jet moves through and the sfc winds increase. The
winds will be south to southeast at 8-15 KT late tomorrow
morning into the afternoon with some gusts at KALB/KPSF around
25 KT.

Outlook...

Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The focus of heavier rainfall through Monday night has shifted
to areas mainly south and east of Albany, where snowmelt will be
little or none, and areas are running drier compared to the SW
Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley. Latest NERFC river forecasts suggest
a few rivers could reach action stages across the SW
Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson Valley regions,
however are favored to remain below flood stage at this time.
The biggest factor will be amount of snowmelt, and if heavier
rain occurs than currently forecast.

Where heavier downpours occur Monday afternoon/evening, some
ponding of water in low lying areas and on roadways will be
possible, especially with any possible heavier showers and
embedded thunderstorms.

Additional rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday could bring
renewed river rises, with some low chances (20-30%) for a few
points to reach minor flood stage later this week across the
southern Adirondacks/Mohawk Valley and upper Hudson Valley.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/Wasula
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...Wasula
HYDROLOGY...KL/Rathbun